Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency sparked by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its retaliation: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare
The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: positive announcements are delivered from different nations. Considerable effort is allocated on restraining certain initiatives. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "resolution".
Nocturnal Warfare
As the offensive progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's exposure was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from Russian territory, a capability provided through current data. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been scrambled to intercept incoming cruise missiles roared overhead – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by European allies.
Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense activated: multiple launches fired to intercept a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, presumably supplied through allied countries. Every deployment jolts you unexpectedly, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly gives way to grim resignation: possibly the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from devastation and additional electricity failures.
Ongoing Risks
Following this, a heavy machine gun opened up on a unmanned aircraft close by, part of a defensive team – probably imported technology. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its destination.
Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: multiple fatalities, destruction and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those entire period illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on external assistance – a reliance that neighboring countries are evidently unprepared to fill in the near term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The comprehensive proposal from American leadership generated strong feelings, debate and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after prior negotiation attempts and multilateral gatherings.
Every new approach from Washington unfolds according to the identical sequence: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This pattern will, certainly, persist.
Tactical Assessments
It is convenient to criticize specific actors of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration works based on a premise familiar among seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration presumes that it is unfeasible to force Russia to abandon the land that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does little to discourage Russia, through diplomacy or military means, from assuming that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its favour in the coming year.
Divergent Views
Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to agree to terms that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing people and territory but avoiding a entire defensive failure until situations evolve in its benefit.
Current Realities
Objectively, there are no genuine requirements for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their priority does not move to internal issues. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.
These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.
Summary and Prospects
It took a just a single week to kill the 28 points of the current initiative. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by American leadership, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of diplomats, and finally, current information leaks, all served their function.
While new plans based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and show particular unwillingness to alter the situation, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, mainly require continued Western support.
